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April 24, 2014
 
 
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Laurier Toronto

Laurier institute’s seat projection shows Conservative majority within reach

Communications, Public Affairs & Marketing

Feb 15/11| For Immediate Release

Contact:

Barry Kay, Associate Professor
Department of Political Science
519-886-5668 or bkay@wlu.ca

or 

Andrea Perrella, Director
Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy
519-884-0710 ext. 2719 or aperrella@wlu.ca

WATERLOO – An analysis of current polls projects a seat distribution that places the federal Conservatives within three seats of a majority, according to the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP).

The latest projection by LISPOP is based on an aggregation of two polls conducted from Feb. 4 to 10, 2011, from Ipsos Reid and EKOS Research Associates with a blended sample of 2,650 individuals. The regional swing model projects 152 seats for the Conservatives, 73 for the Liberals, 30 for the NDP and 53 for the Bloc Québécois.

Most of the Conservative gains are in Ontario.

“The dramatic Conservative increase is almost entirely attributable to Ontario,” said Laurier Political Science Professor Barry Kay, an associate of LISPOP. “The Conservative margin over the Liberals has jumped 11 points since the previous LISPOP projection of February 8, 2011, and 5.5 points from their margin over the Liberals in the 2008 election. Many of the seats that would now swing Conservative are in the ‘905’ region, adjacent to Toronto.”

Kay also notes the Conservative gains are apparent in Quebec, where the Conservatives now have a slight lead over the Liberal party for second place behind the Bloc Québécois. This represents a change from most polls that had been conducted since the 2008 election.

While the seat projection is not a prediction of the future, it is useful to understand how current public opinion translates into actual seat counts.

The seat projection can be viewed at www.wlu.ca/lispop.

LISPOP’s seat projections are based on Kay’s regional-swing model, which he has used successfully for more than 30 years of Canadian elections.

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