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Wilfrid Laurier University Leaf
July 28, 2014
Canadian Excellence


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Laurier Toronto

Laurier institute’s research on federal election feeds national news outlets

Communications, Public Affairs & Marketing

Apr 12/11

The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) has been tracking and interpreting opinion polls from across the nation to predict seat counts for Canada’s federal election on May 2.

LISPOP’s electoral map and seat projection model are updated regularly as new polls are completed. The map directly feeds two national media chains: Postmedia Network, responsible for papers such as the National Post, Ottawa Citizen and Vancouver Sun, and Global News.

The LISPOP team consists of Laurier political scientists, many of whom have appeared in various media outlets the past few weeks, including: CTV Toronto, 570 News, Waterloo Region Record, Toronto Star, Globe and Mail, Maclean's and Bloomberg Canada.

On election night, 10 Laurier-connected people will staff the decision desk for Global Television’s election coverage. They will divide up Canada’s 308 constituencies and help inform people like Laurier Associate Professor Barry Kay about which areas to watch as they cover the results.

Early polls suggested a Conservative majority wasn’t out of reach, but new polls suggest the Liberals are cutting into that majority and the result could be another minority for the Conservative party.

“Early on in the election process, more people are undecided and may only be slightly leaning one way or the other,” said Andrea Perrella, director of LISPOP and assistant professor in Laurier’s Department of Political Science. “As the election heats up and gains more media coverage, it engages more people and the undecided become decided.”

The seat projection uses a regional-swing model algorithm created by Kay, who has used the algorithm successfully for more than 30 years of Canadian elections.

The seat projection is one of several features on LISPOP’s election tracker coverage of the 2011 campaign. Visitors to can view a map of all federal constituencies, colour-coded to reflect the standing of each of the main parties and general level of competitiveness, as per LISPOP’s analysis of the latest surveys.

Updates will also be announced through LISPOP’s Twitter account, @LaurierInst.


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