The reason Manitoba and Saskatchewan don’t have a higher Federal NDP representation is that most people are still Conservative. They believe the provinces should be able to choose their own paths more. That is also why you don’t ever see a Liberal provincial government in those provinces. The NDP does well in MB and SK, provincally, but if you take notice, the NDP there is much more centre based than the Fedeal NDP. Both provinces while under NDP, provincially, cut taxes. You don’t see that anywhere else. That being said, I am living in Saskatchewan now, but am from Manitoba. Spent 5 years in ALberta as well. All three provinces are by far more Conservative than anywere else in the country. GO Harper!
I can only hope that people start looking at the local candidates and the attributes they bring to the table aside from their party allegiance.
Andrew Telegdi has done little for the KW riding, answers questions at all-candidates debates in a manner liken to Sarah Palin, and yet, continues to be elected simply because his signs say ‘Liberal’.
It’s time the people of KW wake up and vote for someone else to REPRESENT them, not someone who simply sits in parliament collecting a paycheque and keeps his job just because he’s a member of the natural governing party.
I am very liberal in my politics, but I will not vote Liberal simply to dampen Conservative chances. The Green party has won me over this round.
It’s time someone with substance represent us in government!
Here in the Kitchener-Waterloo riding it seems things are tightening up. At the latest all candidate debates the long standing Liberal incumbent Telegdi is continually pleading for the left of centre voters to align with him. Theres a real sense that the Conservative Braid has a shot here. He seems to be connecting with the mainly centrist voters. Some local media even are saying the riding is in play.
I live in the BIG Grey area in the Middle of the Country. It will be a tough one however I think Greg and the Conservatives will win this Riding. This is a great map. Its just shocking and also HARD to predict Kenora. As you can see its so large. We have many first nation votes and I think it will be split between the 3 main parties. Many of which DON’T have phones so how can you predict it. Also i live in a Town of approx 1100 and Nobody I know has received a call and we are all pretty much voting Conservative. So I don’t know if they are taking that into account. I bet you will see this Riding go BLUE very soon or at least a light blue for leaning towards Conservative.
I am simply astounded by west montreal. I imagined that the conservative votes would not only remain in the English speaking areas or with high ethnical density. It is to say that no matter how tolerant you want to be, people are reluctant in taking in what the majority of people believe. Which reinforces the theory from which french canadian from outside big centers are very alike their homologue english community. Interesting enough to say that the NPD seems to be doing well in Outremont which is the breaking line in between the mainly french part of the city and the main anglophone and allophone part of the city as if the proximity and mixing of culture force or help people in finding an in between.
Why do you think there is such a tremendous difference and such straight lines that divide the communities of montreal?
There are very important issues underlying all this , they are not Liberal or NPD but Conservative which is the absolute opposite of the BlocQuébécois and the rest of the province.
If specific riding or regional polls are available for Manitoba (or anywhere else for that matter) I would be happy to incorporate them into the model. Otherwise projections are based upon regional subsamples in the Manitoba/Saskatchewan or Prairie areas drawn from national polls. At the moment those figures show a slight Conservative increase and a Liberal decline compared to 2006. The only ridings in the region close enough in Manitoba at that time to suggest possible change are St. Boniface and Winnipeg South-Centre. If the Liberals were to surge in the polls, that would put Winnipeg South into play as well. In contrast to other regions, there are very few Prairie seats likely to switch parties from last election. BK
First let us clarify that we avoid use of the term “prediction” because that implies that the projections are future-oriented, rather than being based upon polls which by definition are”snapshots” of the past.
The best review of the track record for the model is available under Research Method and is entitled “The Regional Swing Model…” Tables at the end of the piece show that as a postdiction rather than using pre-election polls, the accuracy level has averaged 4 seats per party per election going back to 1962. With pre-election polls, it is only as accurate as the polls themselves. If the regional estimates of the polls are incorrect, the seat estimates based upon them will be also. If you dig around the website, you will be able to find “post-mortems” of recent elections that explain this on a region by region basis. In 2006, the post-mortem shows that the model was very accurate in every region but Ontario. In that region the aggregate of late polls was 7% off the Liberal-Conservative differential, and there was a corresponding error in Ontario of a dozen seats. By contrast in the 2007 Ontario election, the late polls were dead-on, and the accuracy of the projection was 2 seats per party per election (68-29-10). BK
Jordan, don’t be surprised. The NDP agreed in the 1990s to the SK electoral map, which basically shuts it out of the province. It wanted those rural-urban seats in the two main cities even though any fool could have told them it would be an uphill struggle for the NDP to win those ridings even though the cities themselves tended to vote NDP.
Where is this information coming from? Southern Manitoba Conservative? Only 1 or 2 ridings in Winnipeg. I can’t believe this is for real. The support for the NDP and Liberals is very strong in this province.
30 responses so far ↓
1 Geoffrey Lee // Oct 15, 2008 at 11:23 am
After looking at the results of the election, there was no outright ‘winner’.
“Steve” did not achieve a majority government, so after three attemps it is possible to say he did not achieve his objective.
“Steph” is the result of strategic voting, let that be a lesson to us all.
“Jack” went were he should - but when compared to previous elections he basically stood still.
“Liz” has done her one trick pony act, and will not be back for the next Leaders debate, unless someone switches at the last minute again.
“Gil” kept the game interesting - the only politician who was honest all the way.
Next time out:
“Steve” will be there.
“Steph” will be a footnote.
“Jack” will have his last stand.
“Liz” might have learned to ride a bike.
“Gil” might be gone too.
Bring back the Rhinos; PLEASE!
2 Rob Doyle // Oct 14, 2008 at 11:29 pm
You can make Kenora (the big empty space in the middle that is Grey) BLUE. We WON
3 PrairieDog // Oct 14, 2008 at 12:54 pm
The reason Manitoba and Saskatchewan don’t have a higher Federal NDP representation is that most people are still Conservative. They believe the provinces should be able to choose their own paths more. That is also why you don’t ever see a Liberal provincial government in those provinces. The NDP does well in MB and SK, provincally, but if you take notice, the NDP there is much more centre based than the Fedeal NDP. Both provinces while under NDP, provincially, cut taxes. You don’t see that anywhere else. That being said, I am living in Saskatchewan now, but am from Manitoba. Spent 5 years in ALberta as well. All three provinces are by far more Conservative than anywere else in the country. GO Harper!
4 JohnKW // Oct 14, 2008 at 9:37 am
I can only hope that people start looking at the local candidates and the attributes they bring to the table aside from their party allegiance.
Andrew Telegdi has done little for the KW riding, answers questions at all-candidates debates in a manner liken to Sarah Palin, and yet, continues to be elected simply because his signs say ‘Liberal’.
It’s time the people of KW wake up and vote for someone else to REPRESENT them, not someone who simply sits in parliament collecting a paycheque and keeps his job just because he’s a member of the natural governing party.
I am very liberal in my politics, but I will not vote Liberal simply to dampen Conservative chances. The Green party has won me over this round.
It’s time someone with substance represent us in government!
5 Robert Smith // Oct 9, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Again a huge sign of tightening in the various riding in the Kitchener-Waterloo area.
The KW Record has actually fully endorsed the Conservatives for one of the very few times in the last 40 years!
The link:
http://news.therecord.com/Opinions/article/426593
6 Robert Smith // Oct 8, 2008 at 12:17 am
Here in the Kitchener-Waterloo riding it seems things are tightening up. At the latest all candidate debates the long standing Liberal incumbent Telegdi is continually pleading for the left of centre voters to align with him. Theres a real sense that the Conservative Braid has a shot here. He seems to be connecting with the mainly centrist voters. Some local media even are saying the riding is in play.
7 Rob Doyle // Oct 7, 2008 at 2:13 pm
I live in the BIG Grey area in the Middle of the Country. It will be a tough one however I think Greg and the Conservatives will win this Riding. This is a great map. Its just shocking and also HARD to predict Kenora. As you can see its so large. We have many first nation votes and I think it will be split between the 3 main parties. Many of which DON’T have phones so how can you predict it. Also i live in a Town of approx 1100 and Nobody I know has received a call and we are all pretty much voting Conservative. So I don’t know if they are taking that into account. I bet you will see this Riding go BLUE very soon or at least a light blue for leaning towards Conservative.
8 Xavier // Oct 6, 2008 at 12:47 pm
just to add that the Liberals loosing so many seats for Conservative in many french district is a big concern.
9 Xavier // Oct 6, 2008 at 12:36 pm
I am simply astounded by west montreal. I imagined that the conservative votes would not only remain in the English speaking areas or with high ethnical density. It is to say that no matter how tolerant you want to be, people are reluctant in taking in what the majority of people believe. Which reinforces the theory from which french canadian from outside big centers are very alike their homologue english community. Interesting enough to say that the NPD seems to be doing well in Outremont which is the breaking line in between the mainly french part of the city and the main anglophone and allophone part of the city as if the proximity and mixing of culture force or help people in finding an in between.
Why do you think there is such a tremendous difference and such straight lines that divide the communities of montreal?
There are very important issues underlying all this , they are not Liberal or NPD but Conservative which is the absolute opposite of the BlocQuébécois and the rest of the province.
10 admin // Oct 2, 2008 at 11:24 am
Tomale, click on the province you are interested in, and you will be able to see the riding-by-riding breakdown.
11 tomale // Oct 2, 2008 at 11:20 am
It would be neat to see a riding-by-riding breakdown. The country-wide map leaves too much to guess. I am interested in specific ridings.
12 admin // Sep 29, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Mark, make sure you press F5 to refresh the page and clear your browser cache.
This should resolve the inconsistency
13 Mark // Sep 29, 2008 at 1:15 pm
Not sure which one is incorrect, but the map shows 3 liberal seats in BC, but the chart only gives them two…
14 Andrew Coyne // Sep 27, 2008 at 11:53 am
Would be great if on the drill-down, mousing over each riding revealed the incumbent, the candidates this election, and the results last time.
15 Bill Dunk-Green // Sep 23, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Fine now, thanks!
16 admin // Sep 23, 2008 at 5:26 pm
There was a plug-in conflict that seems to have affected the flash files. Should be fixed now.
17 Bill Dunk-Green // Sep 23, 2008 at 5:09 pm
I am not getting any “drill down” on the electoral map. It seems to have disappeared. Am I the only one?
18 Ed // Sep 22, 2008 at 9:18 pm
There are 3 new polls out on Sept 20. When will you do another seat projections computation? Thanks for the very valuable information.
19 Ricky // Sep 22, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Just wanted to say your bang on in Saint John N.B! Paul Zed is an excellent M.P!
20 BK // Sep 22, 2008 at 10:02 am
If specific riding or regional polls are available for Manitoba (or anywhere else for that matter) I would be happy to incorporate them into the model. Otherwise projections are based upon regional subsamples in the Manitoba/Saskatchewan or Prairie areas drawn from national polls. At the moment those figures show a slight Conservative increase and a Liberal decline compared to 2006. The only ridings in the region close enough in Manitoba at that time to suggest possible change are St. Boniface and Winnipeg South-Centre. If the Liberals were to surge in the polls, that would put Winnipeg South into play as well. In contrast to other regions, there are very few Prairie seats likely to switch parties from last election. BK
21 BK // Sep 22, 2008 at 6:21 am
First let us clarify that we avoid use of the term “prediction” because that implies that the projections are future-oriented, rather than being based upon polls which by definition are”snapshots” of the past.
The best review of the track record for the model is available under Research Method and is entitled “The Regional Swing Model…” Tables at the end of the piece show that as a postdiction rather than using pre-election polls, the accuracy level has averaged 4 seats per party per election going back to 1962. With pre-election polls, it is only as accurate as the polls themselves. If the regional estimates of the polls are incorrect, the seat estimates based upon them will be also. If you dig around the website, you will be able to find “post-mortems” of recent elections that explain this on a region by region basis. In 2006, the post-mortem shows that the model was very accurate in every region but Ontario. In that region the aggregate of late polls was 7% off the Liberal-Conservative differential, and there was a corresponding error in Ontario of a dozen seats. By contrast in the 2007 Ontario election, the late polls were dead-on, and the accuracy of the projection was 2 seats per party per election (68-29-10). BK
22 rhebner // Sep 21, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Do you have a link to your predictions from earlier elections? It would be nice to compare your accuracy to other ‘prediction’ sites.
thanks.
23 Pebbles // Sep 20, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Jordan, don’t be surprised. The NDP agreed in the 1990s to the SK electoral map, which basically shuts it out of the province. It wanted those rural-urban seats in the two main cities even though any fool could have told them it would be an uphill struggle for the NDP to win those ridings even though the cities themselves tended to vote NDP.
Dumb. But that’s the NDP for you.
24 Sandee // Sep 19, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Where is this information coming from? Southern Manitoba Conservative? Only 1 or 2 ridings in Winnipeg. I can’t believe this is for real. The support for the NDP and Liberals is very strong in this province.
25 Joanne // Sep 16, 2008 at 9:43 pm
A great map. Look for the NDP to take even more seats in BC.
26 Jordan // Sep 16, 2008 at 5:11 pm
I am shocked that NDP don’t do better in Saskatchewan and Manitoba
27 Triceratops // Sep 13, 2008 at 10:40 pm
It is absolutely shocking the contrast between Greater Toronto and the rest of Ontario.
28 Sheldon Reiche // Sep 11, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Very user friendly, and very nicely done.
29 Belissa Bunk // Sep 11, 2008 at 9:41 am
A highly informative and asthetically-pleasing map! To you I say: Bravo!
30 Jayson McDonald // Sep 10, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Map looks great folks
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