The following is an application of the LISPOP seat projection model applied retrospectively using the actual election vote proportions provided regionally as presented in the Globe & Mail website. Two tables are presented below. The first is a postdicted seat distribution using the actual regional percentage splits (with the actual seat distribution in parentheses). The second reports the actual percentage regional splits from the election. In parentheses are the poll-based percentage splits (from the final Globe & Mail regional aggregations reported the morning of Oct.14) which formed the basis for the final Oct.14 LISPOP projection.
[Read more →]

There is an adage frequently applied to election outcomes, that governments are defeated not elected. This simply means that elections are typically more about the governing party, not the opposition. The problem with Stephane Dion’s candidacy in last week’s election, is that to a large degree he allowed the campaign to become about him.
[Read more →]

It is time, past time, to complete the process of political alignment – to consolidate the left, to merge the four anti-Conservative parties into one or, at most, two parties, and to give voters what they did not have in last week’s election: a clear choice instead of confusion.

As in the 2006 election, voters came down in two groups: 37.6 per cent wanted the Conservatives; 62.4 per cent did not. As long as the left remains fractured, 37.6 will trump 62.4 every time. And as long as the system fails to offer a clear choice, voters will stay home in droves, as four in 10 did last Tuesday. The turnout, 59.1 per cent, was the lowest in Canadian history.

[Read more →]

From the moment he announced on Sept. 7 that Canadians would be voting this fall, Prime Minister Stephen Harper downplayed the possibility of a majority Conservative government. He was afraid that loose talk of a majority would frighten nervous and undecided voters into the Liberal camp (as happened in the 2006 election).

He also – because he pays close attention to the polls – knew that a Tory majority was a long shot. By refusing to speculate on a majority, he dampened expectations. If he happened to win a majority, he could claim a spectacular victory. But if he fell short of the required 155 seats, he would still be able to claim a significant triumph.
[Read more →]

This projection is based upon a regional aggregation of polls from the Globe and Mail which include: Strategic Counsel Oct. 12, Harris/Decima Oct.12, Ipsos Reid Oct.11, , Angus Reid Oct.11, Ekos Oct.11 and Nanos Oct.11.

					Independent
Atlantic	8	20	3	-	1
Quebec	8	14	1	51	1
Ontario	43	46	17	-	-
Prairies	21	6	4	-	-
Alberta	28	-	-	-	-
BC	24	4	8	-	-
Total	132	90	33	51	2

In the eyes of admiring Conservatives, Stephen Harper is a brilliant strategist. He is, after all, the man who united the right, who built the Conservatives into the strongest and richest party, and who led it to power after 13 years in the wilderness.

This election, however, is not enhancing his strategist’s credentials. His overarching objective from the beginning was to smash the old Canadian political template by establishing the Conservatives as the natural governing party, a distinction enjoyed by the Liberals for so many years.
[Read more →]

According to conventional wisdom, Canadian voters do not begin to focus on the decisions they must make in the polling booth until the final week of an election campaign. That’s probably true in this election. If so, what has been a desultory campaign for its first four weeks, will take on a new energy, purpose – and desperation – as the moment of truth approaches on Oct. 14.
[Read more →]

There is only one real question in this federal election. Do we, as voters, trust Stephen Harper enough – and feel sufficiently comfortable with him and his party – to elect a majority Conservative government?

That the Conservatives will win (which might have been an open proposition at the start) is no longer is doubt. Even Liberals admit that. The only uncertainty is the size of the victory.
[Read more →]

In the United States, presidential and vice-presidential debates on television are organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates, an independent body created in 1987 to recognize the debates as a permanent feature of every presidential election.

In the normal course, there are three presidential debates and one vice-presidential one, each running for 90 minutes.

[Read more →]

Most academic researchers probably ignore the gun owning public as a salient component of the Canadian electorate. Rather it seems to be an “American” interest, quite distant from the mainstream Canadian polity. Nonetheless, the large size of the Ipsos-Reid 2006 election day sample of 36,000 allows us to examine this group which has received relatively little attention previously in Canada. The number of gun owners in the sample included 5,954, about one-sixth of the survey respondents.

[Read more →]