Conflict Analysis at LCMSDS The Conflict Analysis research theme at LCMSDS is the study of how and why interacting decisions lead to conflict or cooperation. Usually these questions are studied at the international level, though some projects now focus on sub-state actors. Most studies have attempted to predict behaviour, based on the assumption that decision-makers pursue their interests as best they can, given their capabilities and their knowledge of the opponent’s capabilities and objectives. But some projects, rather than predicting behaviour, have attempted to design systems, such as arms-control regimes, within which actors will behave in desired ways.

Major research topics have included the general theory of deterrence and escalation; one conclusion is that mutual deterrence generally depends on some level of uncertainty about the motives or capabilities of the other side. Other research has addressed arms control, not only the design of rules and institutions, but also operational questions such as optimal inspection strategies to deter violation if possible, detect it if it cannot be deterred, and minimize it if it cannot be detected. In a recent project, a model of anti-terror campaigns is proposed that is based on attrition, and may be developed into an understanding of how terrorist interactions reflect rising or falling resource levels. One recent study relevant to peace operations attempted the retrospective formal analysis of a specific strategic conflict that arose in this context; another asked, in general, whether and when power-sharing is stable – can power be shared by two individuals or organizations, or will the partners try to eliminate each other?