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August 22, 2014
 
 
Canadian Excellence

Maria Gallego




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Maria Gallego

An Economic Theory of Leadership Turnover (ABSTRACT)


Maria Gallego and Carolyn Pitchik

published: 2004 | Research publication | Refereed Journals - Economics

Gallego, M. & Pitchik, C. (2004).  "An Economic Theory of Leadership Turnover". Journal of Public Economics, 88 (12), pp. 2361-2382.

 


ABSTRACT: In an infinite-horizon stochastic model, a coup not only disciplines a dictator's policy towards a group of "kingmakers", but also enables a kingmaker to become a dictator. Greater competition for the dictator's position, a lower impact of the dictator's policy on the kingmakers, or lower risks of staging a coup raises the benefit of a coup relative to its opportunity cost and so raises the probability of a coup. Since periodic shocks affect the efficacy of the dictator's policy, a bad enough shock makes it too costly for even talented dictators to avert a coup. More talented dictators are able to survive more negative shocks, so the worst shock in a dictator's reign is informative about the probability of a coup. Conditional on the worst shock, the probability of a coup is independent of a dictator's duration in office. The unconditional probability declines with duration.

Download the article at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=MImg&_imagekey=B6V76-4B852G1-1-17&_cdi=5834&_user=1067439&_orig=browse&_coverDate=12%2F31%2F2004&_sk=999119987&view=c&wchp=dGLbVzb-zSkWW&md5=244b030fb91b0a9a4fa8c67329eacc1f&ie=/sdarticle.pdf

revised Jan 12/06

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