Polls - Public Policy and Electoral Preferences
Gauging Public Opinion During an Election Campaign
September 6, 2011
The public seminar will focus on the collection and interpretation
of public opinion during an election campaign, with special attention focused on the 2011 Ontario general election. Guests include Darrell Bricker (Ipsos Reid), Peter Loewen (Vote Compass), Barry Kay (LISPOP) and Eric Grenier (threehundredeight.com).
Latest Ontario Seat Projection
September 1, 2011
The accompanying seat projection was based upon a blended and weighted sample of 3300 respondents conducted by Forum Research and Angus Reid during the last few days of August.
Position Opening: Research Assistant
LISPOP is recruiting undergraduate research assistants for the autumn 2011 semester. Click on link for more details.
August 18, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection
The following seat projection is based upon a blending of Ipsos and Nanos polls conducted in early August. The underlying vote proportions were CON-40%, LIB-35%, and NDP-20%. The seat totals were CON-51, LIB-41, and NDP-15.
July 19, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection
The recent Ipsos poll for Ontario posted on July 14 providing a Conservative lead of 11% presents a provincial projection of Con-63 seats, Lib-25 seats, NDP-19 seats.
June 20, 2011 Ontario Seat Projection
The following seat projection was based upon a provincial poll released in late May, whose distribution of public support was CON-41%, LIB-34% and NDP-19%.
Federal Seat Projection Post Mortem
LISPOP has been in the practice of providing a post mortem of its seat projection since it went online for the 2004 election. What follows will be an instant review, not intended to be the final analysis which hopefully will be provided in the coming days for those watching this space.
May 1, 2011 Federal Seat Projection
The following seat projection is drawn from a weighting and blending of polls conducted between Apr. 26 to 29. It is an adaption of the one circulated on April 30, but includes additional polls unavailable at the time including data from Nanos, Ipsos,Angus Reid, Ekos, Harris-Decima, Leger and Forum Research. The aggregate sample exceeds 10,000 respondents.
April 27, 2011 Federal Seat Projection
The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Angus Reid and Nanos conducted between April 22-26. The overall sample includes over 6000 respondents.
April 22, 2011 Federal Seat Projection
The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Forum research, Ipsos, Nanos and CROP (Quebec only) conducted between April 18-20. Approximately 8000 respondents are included in the aggregate figures.
April 20, 2011 Federal Seat Projection
The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Nanos, Environics, Abacus, Leger, Angus Reid, Harris-Decima, Leger and Forum Research, conducted from April 11 to April 18. The number of respondents interviewed exceeded 15,000 the largest aggregate sample ever used in a LISPOP projection, prior to the final week of an election campaign.
April 15, 2011 Federal Seat Projection
The following seat projection is based upon a blending and weighting of polls from Harris-Decima, Compas, Innovative Research, Ekos and Nanos conducted from April 6 to 13. The aggregate sample from which they are drawn consists of over 7500 respondents, most of whom were interviewed before the televised leaders' debates.
April 11, 2011 Seat Projection
The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Forum Research, Angus Reid and Nanos conducted between April 4-10, comprising over 7000 respondents.
The following seat projection is based upon a wighted blending of polls from Environics, Ekos, Angus Reid, Nanos and Innovative research conduvted from March 30 and April 6. The aggregate sample is drawn from over 6000 respondents.
The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of polls from Nanos, Ekos and Leger conducted between March 28 and April 2. It includes interviews with over 8000 respondents.
Federal Support Graphs and Tables Updated
April 6, 2011
Our Federal Support Graphs and Charts have been updated with data from March polls.
March 31, 2011 Seat Projection
The following seat projection is based upon a weighted blending of polls from Nanos, Harris-Decima, Abacus and Forum Research that were drawn from March 24-29. The overall sample was approximately 6000. While the national total of seats allocated drops the Conservatives down below the magic number of 155, the real story of the past seven weeks is how stable public opinion and the polls have actually been.
March 28, 2011 Federal Seat Projection
The following seat projection is based upon a blending of polls from Ipsos, Ekos, Angus Reid, Leger, and CROP (Quebec only), that were conducted from March 17-24. The aggregate sample was approximately 9000 respondents. The overall projection has hardly changed at all from the previous one, despite the fact that it was based upon almost entirely different polling data.
March 25, 2011 Federal Seat Projection
The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of four weighted polls conducted by Ipsos, Nanos and Harris-Decima from March 10 to March 23. The aggregate sample includes approximately 5000 respondents. This projection assumes an 10% Conservative lead in Ontario.
March 24, 2011 Federal Seat Projection
The following seat projection is based upon a blended sample of three weighted polls conducted by Ipsos, Nanos and Harris-Decima from March 10 to March 20. The aggregate sample includes approximately 4000 respondents. It suggests that the basic pattern of party preference has been quite stable over the past six weeks. This projection assumes an 8% Conservative lead in Ontario, down 1 point since the previous projection.
March 14, 2011 Seat Projection
This seat projection is based upon a weighted blending of polls from Ipsos, Ekos and Angus Reid conducted between Feb. 23 and March 9 and drawn from an aggregate sample of approximately 5000. These numbers suggest that there has been little net change through the last three projections since early February.In the key province of Ontario, The Conservatives continue to hold a 9 percentage point lead over the Liberals, just where the difference was in the previous projection.
February 28, 2011 Seat Projection
The following seat projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Angus Reid, Ekos, Nanos and Abacus drawn between Feb. 10-25. None of these polls were included in our previous projection. In the key province of Ontario, the party differentials ranged from a 13 percentage point Conservative lead over the Liberals in the Angus Reid sample, to a tie in the Ekos numbers. The weighted average ultimately used was a 9 percentage point Conservative lead in that province.
Federal Support Graphs and Tables Updated
February 28, 2011
Our Federal Support Graphs and Charts have been updated with data from February polls. Amongst other things, these new graphs demonstrate the swell of Conservative support in Ontario.
February 18, 2011 Seat Projection
The following projection is based upon a blending of weighted polls from Ekos, Ipsos-Reid and Harris-Decima conducted between Feb. 3 and Feb. 13. the aggregate sample was approximately 5700. In the key province of Ontario it showed a Conservative lead over the Liberals of 9.5%, as compared to 5.5% in the 2008 election.
February 15, 2011Seat Projection
The following projection is based upon a weighted blending of the Ekos and Ipsos polls conducted between Feb. 4-10, based upon an aggregate sample of 2650. It predicts the Conservative Party would win the election a mere 3 seats away from a majority.
February 8, 2011 Seat Projection
The following seat projection is drawn from a blending of polls from Ipsos, Ekos, and Abacus conducted between Jan. 17 and Feb. 2. The regional internal splits represent only slight differences from the previous month. The only region where more than one seat has shifted is Ontario, where popular support is now tied between the Conservative and Liberal parties.
January 13, 2011 Seat Projection
The following parliamentary seat projection is based upon a blended aggregation of seven polls conducted in December, 2010 and reported by the threehundredeight.com website. Collectively the total figures do not differ substantially with the 2008 election results. They point in the same direction of every poll taken since that election, suggesting a minority parliament with the Conservatives gaining the most seats.
© LISPOP 2011
The Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy is a research center at Wilfrid Laurier University which studies issues pertaining to the creation, use and representation of public opinion in the policy process. The Institute serves as a catalyst to promote individual and collaborative research on these issues. In addition, the Institute monitors the practices and claims of the public opinion and interest group industries, and serves as an educational resource to the University and the larger community on questions and issues pertaining to those claims and practices.